Headed West, Worried About the East

By now you will have seen or heard about the tragedy in Texas. I would describe what I’m feeling, but I can’t because I just have to get there. Time for feelings will come. Our Search and Rescue/ Recovery team has deployed, and we will drive through the night to get there. The stories we are hearing from a colleague already onsite signal that the destruction may be more intense, more concentrated in specific areas than Helene.

To be honest none of us have really recovered from Helene. Every time I drive through Erwin, I get angry. There has been a lot of progress just in the last 45 days, but the wound is still open, a gash, scarring one of the most beautiful landscapes in the country. As I write this we are being contacted about the aftermath from Chantal. North Carolina and East TN are still disaster zones with fallen trees everywhere meaning debris missiles with rain and wind and fires when it’s dry. Roads that were heroically opened will be closed again, are already closed again.

Disaster season is in full swing, or is it just life now? I feel privileged to stand beside these brave team members who have seen unspeakable things. They continue to get up and gear up, no matter the obstacle in their way. After dealing with multiple camps and teams, I can tell you just how rare that is. The Walking Dead is instructive. Disaster culture is a thing. Guarding your heart while trying to leave it open for those that need it is a tricky business. But many, many lessons were learned from Helene, and we are stronger for it.

My plan for this post was a deep dive into May results…man those short-term rental (STR) towns are taking a beating…as we knew they would. Yesterday I somehow landed in the crosshairs of a big STR matchmaker. He promises to find you the perfect investment fit! I seemed to have really riled up the xTwitter Airbnb bros, pointing out just how ridiculous it is for Sevierville, TN to have 6K short-term rentals (was 10K in December 2023). In this overbuilt spot 90 miles away from me prices are down -12.37% from the peak.

The bros bombarded me with the same pitch I’ve heard for the past three years…recession proof, X million visitors to the national parks each year (the X ranged from 6 to 15 million). They were all just regurgitating the brochure they received via text or in email solicitations.

Likely many of the Mom-and-Pop investors never even visited to know just how awful it is to try and get around in that area because the infrastructure was not built to support the growth, like so many other places across the country. If you haven’t read the article above, I recommend you click on the linked pic. It’s worth a read…from 2022. The bread and butter of this area is a certain kind of tourist - more middle class or regional enthusiasts. If Californians come, they come once and talk about how gaudy it is. These are things you can only know if you ask someone other than the person trying to get you to invest or buy. COVID travel was an anomaly, and AirDNA and other platforms used those skewed statistics to calculate occupancy. The nonbank lenders relied on that information to underwrite and promote risky mortgage loans that mean these deals simply no longer pencil due to lower occupancy. Never forget the year-round $600 a night Airbnb in Kyle, TX! I can guarantee you that guy probably made about $600 during South by Southwest before having to sell. He did try to list it for long-term rental, but that income would nowhere near cover his costs. This of course all catapulted prices. With lowest purchases by first-time homeowners last year since NAR started tracking it, this market is no longer what many think it is. I’ve said it before, and I will say it again - it’s a casino.

Awareness is key. Due diligence is key. There are no shortcuts. When I have the energy, I will tell you all about the large language models I trained and my thoughts on AI, but there is too much to do right now. Below I will post just the high-level city stats. More detailed analysis and a profile of Rochester will have to wait until the weekend. So, no teaser this week. I only ask (and boy do I hate to ask) that if you have considered becoming a paying subscriber or founding member, I would sincerely appreciate it if you did. This week will be unpaid. Not your problem, but the support would be appreciated.

Additionally, if you are so led, please visit our website and consider a donation. I know we are all pretty stretched thin - emotionally and financially - but the parents of these children will thank you. Our service is in your name - the Forgotten Americans, and quite frankly the Forgotten Citizens of this Planet. I thank those of you who have already generously donated, contacting me before I had to ask (

Thoughtful Money

), or retweeting (

Rudy Havenstein

,

Unicus Research

,

Amanda Goodall

,

K. Pow

,

Ulysses Awsumb

,

Julia La Roche

,

Coffee and a Mike

,

MacroEdge

and many others) my xTwitter post. A special thank you to

Danielle DiMartino Booth

, an incredible writer and friend, for her beautiful, heartfelt plea on our behalf. Because she is who she is, her supporters from all over the world have showed up Texas-big. I don’t have words to express the gratitude deserved.

For where two or three are gathered in my name, there am I among them

- Matthew 18:20

Peace and prayers be with you.