The Last Stand?

By now I should be used to the annoyance of discovering an article in MSM on a topic that I started writing about more than two years ago and was called crazy for doing so.

When I first started talking about private or pocket listings every realtor on xTwitter told me they did not exist. Even after I took pictures of properties I saw on the road with signs saying “Private Listing” they claimed these transactions were minimal. I would also talk about “Coming Soon” listings, but many realtors believe that the way it works in their MLS is the way it works everywhere. That is simply not the case and there are multiple ways that folks can privately market properties before publishing them to the listing sites based on the rules of their MLS. In some MLS you can privately market for a set amount of time a property which shows as “Coming Soon” on the listing site. When it becomes available the unlucky party who was interested would call the listing agent and find out there were “already multiple cash offers” creating FOMO when actually the agent had been shopping it around for weeks in some cases. But every once in a while, I would stumble across someone who handled private listings, and they would say “of course they exist,” or an article like this one in Inman about Austin:

The way people buy and sell homes has changed, but the National Association of Realtors is doing everything in their power to deny it while Big Tech tries to finagle its way in to capture that very rich data set. Housing and the industries that support it make up quite a large portion of GDP (between 12-20% depending on how you calculate it). Selling you stuff for your home is big business. Plus, that mortgage application has every detail about your finances. Imagine the possibilities, says the salivating Tech sector.

I used to be all about tech creating transparency in the industry, but then you realize nobody really wants that. It’s just too lucrative to cheat and manage the message to maximize profit. Every actor that starts out with grand “transparency” or “real-time information” goals eventually sells out and signs up for screwing the end consumer. There is no all-encompassing panacea that will fix what’s broken in housing. Like so many things these days we want the process to be convenient and for someone to tell us the answer. I recently did a podcast where someone asked me over and over what they should be looking for to know when the time is right as if there is a magic bullet. I’ve said it before, and I will say it again - buying a house for shelter or investment is a personal decision. You have to consider your unique position while understanding the macro picture. You have to do your own due diligence…you cannot outsource it if you truly want to protect your interests. You have to go talk to the businesses in the neighborhood, drive the roads and do a true analysis on whether the commute and time spent away from family is worth it or if you will actually get the tenants needed to cashflow.

How many Airbnb owners in San Diego for instance are aware of O-Lot, the homeless camp, right next to the San Diego Zoo - one of San Diego’s biggest tourist attractions? How many walked the streets of Mission Beach before buying there? How many thought through whether they, much less a family of 5, would want to sit in traffic in Gatlinburg for two hours just to get from Point A to Point B? We scurry like ants to and fro and justify our choices based on lack of time. Perhaps though we would have more time if we thought harder about our choices. In the major cities across the U.S. decay is ever-present. This won’t change because we put a check mark next to X person at the ballot box. It changes when we show up, take responsibility and demand accountability.

Sullivan County is right next door to me, and they said no. Yes, we can make a difference. My pal Travis has made it his mission to fight for himself and others in Texas who have received fraudulent assessments. In Kerr County, where there are still 3 people missing (down from 160) despite heroic efforts by first responders and search and rescue/recovery teams (SAR) from all over the country (and world), the city planners are considering a special property tax hike allowed when in a declared disaster to help pay for recovery efforts as

Kelly said that the last time the county dealt with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), it took two to three years before the county was reimbursed for recovery efforts.

“It’s more cash flow management,” Kelly said Monday. “We’re going to have to pay for this stuff. A lot of this is going to be reimbursed by FEMA ... but, they’re slow.”

Kerr County protestors showed up in front of the county courthouse to make their views known.

As I trudged through mud alongside responders from adjacent counties who shut their towns down for Friday Night Lights, searching for missing loved ones, I saw just how strong a force community cohesion can be. These brave men and women cared deeply about their community, returning from deployments elsewhere, or joining after 48-hour shifts at the firehouse, to search tirelessly amidst dangerous conditions. I will be writing up a post for those that gave to Steelecroft’s efforts and will link it when I publish next, but this experience brought additional perspective and further strengthened my belief that this country is definitely worth fighting for.

Although many of our systems are rigged so that only the few prosper while the many suffer - when we come together, we have a strength that cannot be denied. When we stop fixating on headlines and the BS being shoveled, the facts and path ahead become clearer. So, when existing home sale results are published on Wednesday and (if) NAR claims yet another all-time high in median home price (likely), remain patient. The tide is turning. 37 of the 85 cities I track had YOY price declines compared to 27 in May and 16 in June of 2024. In fact, in aggregate prices were down for M3 cities by -.77% from May to June. In the NAR series going back to 1999 price declines between May and June have never occurred. Whether NAR shows an aggregate MOM price decline means little because the changing fundamentals under the hood cannot be denied.

Math will start mathing again no matter what gyrations those in power attempt to use to distract. For today’s post I will share June summary results for M3 cities by region, and boy is some of this price movement getting interesting. Want to guess how many cities had both YOY and MOM price declines? Last month it was 12. Which regions had MOM price declines…in the high season? There is at least one vocal troll out there who is going to be very upset by these results as his region falters. I will also share my forecast for June sales as well as what I found when sampling client data on recent mortgage payoffs with respect to private sales and price action. And, finally, what about that pop in delinquency in June I’ve been warning about? Did it happen? What does that mean for our path ahead?

For perspective…