I feel as if time has rolled over me and I’m now flat as a pancake with little idea how to reanimate, catch back up, as headlines scream at us, tearing our attention from one thing to another at warp speed, creating ADD exponential as we try to keep up and anchor in some palatable reality: Israel/Hamas conflict; China and a new Chinese pneumonia; a bizarre melodrama regarding our potential new Robot overlords; UFOs; cyberattacks; the deaths of Kissinger, Munger, O’Connor; sunspots, and I could go on and on.
Melody, my wife and I were in Georgetown, TX for the holidays. My inlaws bought into Del Webb SunCity. My BIL told me that the price of lots that backed up to a tree line had been reduced from $300k to $100k. I thought that was interesting since they paid $90k for their lot early 2022.
Georgetown was a real eye opener. Where I stayed there were new build sites everywhere and the traffic was already horrendous! Thank you for the intel.
Hi Melody, I'm just reading this now, on 12/18, to confirm your first two paragraphs. This whole system has become a game of deadly financial dodge ball. Your conversation with Travis was A+++, same with Coffee and a Mike.
Check this out - we'll call this Property X I had deep connection to 2012-2019 and leave it at that. Rural, middle of nowhere, 21A, 1940/1980 farm house cobbled together. Tax assessed in 2017 for $154k, then in 2019 $151k yes for less. Sold May 2021 for $330k and Zillow lists it today as (down) to $421k. My gruff coment is, yes, i want to see J.P. break things.
Thank you so much for reading and the affirmation. The current situation is unsustainable. Either all of our wages have to be raised, or the correction comes. I think things have broken...mainstream media is just doing its level best to keep us from finding out - in my opinion.
My brother just bought a 5b4b in Georgetown, TX. He said he is getting a steal of a deal as the property was initially listed for $1.2M but he got it for $800k. He is closing in January. I have heard a few of his friends buying in Georgetown this year year as well. But with price cuts like these geez unsure what 2024 brings.
Georgetown was a real mess. It sounds like he is buying in a higher-end location there, but the amount of new-builds was just staggering. And, the traffic - phew. I don't think 2024 is going to be that kind to the area in my opinion, but hopefully the math works for him.
I guess the question at this point is how long will the government's election year interventions keep prices from reaching an equilibrium. I feel like the can kicking can last for way longer than should even be possible.
Well done on holding steady - I read on events - all events - from the sidelines - so many good independent, investigative reporters trying to break through the nonsense presented by formerly trusted news sources - their spin so far off what each of us see and experience - and more importantly your/their insights support our gut instincts, our common sense - we can’t be experts in everything, but we know when things don’t pass the smell test. We also know ‘leopards don’t change their spots’ and the leopards are still in charge.
I think we are in depression. I see something in my professional field, I've never seen before - "fake job offers." A job advertised on LinkedIn gets cloned and a stream of applicants get re-routed to the conmen, who do a fake interview, give an applicant a fake offer (on the real company's letterhead), and proceed to do the "background check" - a norm in my field, but in this case, it's the conmen's end game, as the conned job seeker submits SSN, address, DL, signature, and lots of CC issued in his/her name by conmen, and tons of money drawn. An applicant eventually contacts the company, because his equimpent (laptop, printer, etc) did not arrive and finds out he/she were conned and the real company who had this job know nothing of them. I have seen at least 10 warning on major employers' sites - "Scam alert - fraudulent job offers" So the poor conned job seekers left with ID stolen and fighting to restore their credit history - by nature of my job we must have good credit to get company's CC, car, etc.
A point worth highlighting in your Travis Spencer interview. It's not really accurate or fair to say that student loan payments "in reality... should be" anything other than what actually makes it onto the statement (a % of income). The income based process really transforms the debt into something more like a tax than anything resembling traditional debt instruments (the question is how to assess the tax implications of any forgiveness at the end of the term).
One other minor point is that the first income based repayment plan dates back to 1994, however the terms/plans have been modified by various administrations since then.
Also, to me, ability to repay shouldn't be just based on payments due each month - that to me does not take into account things like variable interest rates, etc. My point is more about the total credit profile versus an income calculation. I'm very curious though to hear other perspectives and would love to hear your thoughts about this article. Thank you again!
Yep, familiar with both the article and then the discussion that followed on the Potomac Watch podcast. Basically my issue with the argument is that it imagines a parallel universe where the IBR programs don't exist, however, they do exist and we live in this universe.
I hear you on variable rates though. But the same thing could be said about potential increases in property taxes as you've discussed. Given that the student loans would only go up as a function of income going up, I think there's less risk to mortgage repayment than the sort of large variable costs that can come up like insurance, property taxes, maintenance, having a child (childcare), etc.
So, I think this is a fascinating discussion. Those IBRs are designed for people who are in distress and cannot make their full payment. I will check out the podcast and send over some thoughts, but it's almost like you are saying there is good debt and bad debt? You mention "fairness" in your first comment. Would that be an accurate assessment? And would you consider for instance a debt consolidation payment the same way?
Thank you so much for reading. Yes, the stories I’m hearing from some are much worse -especially those that bought in 21 and 22. Glad yours wasn’t as bad!
Melody, my wife and I were in Georgetown, TX for the holidays. My inlaws bought into Del Webb SunCity. My BIL told me that the price of lots that backed up to a tree line had been reduced from $300k to $100k. I thought that was interesting since they paid $90k for their lot early 2022.
SunCity is a total ripoff.
Georgetown was a real eye opener. Where I stayed there were new build sites everywhere and the traffic was already horrendous! Thank you for the intel.
Dodge ball, and Smear the Queer at recess! Morning In America!
🎯❤️
GenX best gen.
Wow reading about the fraud in Davie Florida just reminded me of this article in the Miami Herald. Hundreds of thousands of dollars a swindled from buyers on new construction. Same scam different actors https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/coconut-grove/article283640413.html
Hi Melody, I'm just reading this now, on 12/18, to confirm your first two paragraphs. This whole system has become a game of deadly financial dodge ball. Your conversation with Travis was A+++, same with Coffee and a Mike.
Check this out - we'll call this Property X I had deep connection to 2012-2019 and leave it at that. Rural, middle of nowhere, 21A, 1940/1980 farm house cobbled together. Tax assessed in 2017 for $154k, then in 2019 $151k yes for less. Sold May 2021 for $330k and Zillow lists it today as (down) to $421k. My gruff coment is, yes, i want to see J.P. break things.
Thank you so much for reading and the affirmation. The current situation is unsustainable. Either all of our wages have to be raised, or the correction comes. I think things have broken...mainstream media is just doing its level best to keep us from finding out - in my opinion.
My brother just bought a 5b4b in Georgetown, TX. He said he is getting a steal of a deal as the property was initially listed for $1.2M but he got it for $800k. He is closing in January. I have heard a few of his friends buying in Georgetown this year year as well. But with price cuts like these geez unsure what 2024 brings.
Georgetown was a real mess. It sounds like he is buying in a higher-end location there, but the amount of new-builds was just staggering. And, the traffic - phew. I don't think 2024 is going to be that kind to the area in my opinion, but hopefully the math works for him.
I guess the question at this point is how long will the government's election year interventions keep prices from reaching an equilibrium. I feel like the can kicking can last for way longer than should even be possible.
Any data on Metro Milwaukee WI? CRE is defaulting here and multifamily build stopped by me.
Not tracking Milwaukee currently, but if I can organize these volunteers, I will add it. Stay tuned :)
Well done on holding steady - I read on events - all events - from the sidelines - so many good independent, investigative reporters trying to break through the nonsense presented by formerly trusted news sources - their spin so far off what each of us see and experience - and more importantly your/their insights support our gut instincts, our common sense - we can’t be experts in everything, but we know when things don’t pass the smell test. We also know ‘leopards don’t change their spots’ and the leopards are still in charge.
Dodgeball was a favourite back in the day.
I think we are in depression. I see something in my professional field, I've never seen before - "fake job offers." A job advertised on LinkedIn gets cloned and a stream of applicants get re-routed to the conmen, who do a fake interview, give an applicant a fake offer (on the real company's letterhead), and proceed to do the "background check" - a norm in my field, but in this case, it's the conmen's end game, as the conned job seeker submits SSN, address, DL, signature, and lots of CC issued in his/her name by conmen, and tons of money drawn. An applicant eventually contacts the company, because his equimpent (laptop, printer, etc) did not arrive and finds out he/she were conned and the real company who had this job know nothing of them. I have seen at least 10 warning on major employers' sites - "Scam alert - fraudulent job offers" So the poor conned job seekers left with ID stolen and fighting to restore their credit history - by nature of my job we must have good credit to get company's CC, car, etc.
A point worth highlighting in your Travis Spencer interview. It's not really accurate or fair to say that student loan payments "in reality... should be" anything other than what actually makes it onto the statement (a % of income). The income based process really transforms the debt into something more like a tax than anything resembling traditional debt instruments (the question is how to assess the tax implications of any forgiveness at the end of the term).
One other minor point is that the first income based repayment plan dates back to 1994, however the terms/plans have been modified by various administrations since then.
Thank you. So, I would really like to talk this out more. I wasn't talking about the calculation itself. Have you read this article? https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-student-debt-bubble-fueled-a-housing-bubble-debt-income-obama-fannie-freddie-bd29b05c
Also, to me, ability to repay shouldn't be just based on payments due each month - that to me does not take into account things like variable interest rates, etc. My point is more about the total credit profile versus an income calculation. I'm very curious though to hear other perspectives and would love to hear your thoughts about this article. Thank you again!
Yep, familiar with both the article and then the discussion that followed on the Potomac Watch podcast. Basically my issue with the argument is that it imagines a parallel universe where the IBR programs don't exist, however, they do exist and we live in this universe.
I hear you on variable rates though. But the same thing could be said about potential increases in property taxes as you've discussed. Given that the student loans would only go up as a function of income going up, I think there's less risk to mortgage repayment than the sort of large variable costs that can come up like insurance, property taxes, maintenance, having a child (childcare), etc.
So, I think this is a fascinating discussion. Those IBRs are designed for people who are in distress and cannot make their full payment. I will check out the podcast and send over some thoughts, but it's almost like you are saying there is good debt and bad debt? You mention "fairness" in your first comment. Would that be an accurate assessment? And would you consider for instance a debt consolidation payment the same way?
Thank you so much for reading. Yes, the stories I’m hearing from some are much worse -especially those that bought in 21 and 22. Glad yours wasn’t as bad!