Very nice. I just read the entire article to my wife as we drive to Cadillac to see our youngest.
“The huge number of all-cash sales means that this default cycle will likely be very different than the last”.
Maybe. You are likely correct. But I’m in the feral camp that a large % of the all cash sales, we’re not actually that. From a real estate transaction basis they looked that way. But the money was borrowed somewhere, against an equity portfolio, vaulted gold, equity in another property, or for institutional investors short term cap ex loans. We shall see how it plays out.
I have about 25% NAV in equities and I have been reducing positions across the board over the last week. Other than my 100% speculations by weeks end my equity exposure will be down to less that half of what it was. I had a great quarter, up until the last couple weeks and that was enough for me.
Excellent. WE are definitely on the SAME page. I argue elsewhere that these loans were all leveraged with crypto, equity assets, etc. My first viral tweet in November was that "These all-cash sales were certainly not all-cash" :).
I think you are going to be happy you did. I lost a little upside, but I liquidated most in December and last month.
This has been my base case since mid 2021. And just about everyday since I first posited my theory my wife has asked the same early morning question. Is today the day? Lol
Yes - totally agree with this. Love this quote: "The takeaway: In a society of borrowers and speculators, asset values increase because of borrowing and speculation, which makes rising household net worth both a negative indicator of future growth and a sign of fragility rather than strength. But until people figure this out, it remains a great tool for convincing consumers that everything is fine when it’s actually not."
Thanks. We had a wonderful time. I got out of all equities in September 2021. But my dad died a couple months later and left my brother and I a bit of money. Not enough to get rich. Lol. But I did take some of it and invest it into 3 buckets. Mining. Energy and shipping. Fixed Income. It’s been way up and way down. I’ve thought myself an incredible seer. I’ve thought myself the worlds biggest fool. About midweek last I was combined up about 5% since Jan2022. But oil crashed, gas failed to rally, shipping got hit. I had 3 equities with ex dividend dates of Friday and Monday and even though they were losing serious ground I didn’t want to sell before the date.
Anyway I cut every position by 50%, sold off some miners. I’ll probably ride it out from here, might even add to some mining positions. Time for SHTF is coming quick.
Indeed. I had a 10 month CD expire last week. It was at 3%. So the banker calls me today and says they just raised their MM rate to 4.25 which is only .25 under what I could get for 10 mos. Perfect. No commitment. At this point I’m content to sit on cash, metals and a few speculative mining stocks. I could be wrong, but I think the volatility is going to be ridiculous. I know people who like that environment but I do not.
I have traded Nat Gas off and on for a few years. We have a closely held oil/gas streaming company. 58SH and I’m a Director. 2 oil wells and 9 gas wells in northern MI. It’s not making anyone wealthy but we get some income. And it’s interesting family business. So I have always had access to some level of inside info. But in the past 6 months nothing has made sense and I lost money for the first time. So I exited those positions this morning as well.
Exactly. I think for me it was December and I just got a feeling based on some weird optimism I was witnessing based on the macro and trading backdrop. But, I would be a terrible trader as I just don't have the patience, so it's best for me to make conservative moves. I think sitting out right now generally though is a good idea....even people are worried now about getting paid on time for their 4-week treasury!
LOL. I don’t think that will be an issue. They are all just posturing. I just auto roll the 17 week Treasuries anyway.
Of course, every position I reduced is rocketing higher this morning on the fake job numbers I guess. Ignoring the massive revisions from March and April’s fake numbers.
But I’m more comfy now with 35% gold and silver, 50% cash, 15% equities. I’ll buy TLT once it falls below 100. I think you are correct, derisk, ignore and wait. Besides spring is nearly here and the Lakes are calling. Haha.
Very nice. I just read the entire article to my wife as we drive to Cadillac to see our youngest.
“The huge number of all-cash sales means that this default cycle will likely be very different than the last”.
Maybe. You are likely correct. But I’m in the feral camp that a large % of the all cash sales, we’re not actually that. From a real estate transaction basis they looked that way. But the money was borrowed somewhere, against an equity portfolio, vaulted gold, equity in another property, or for institutional investors short term cap ex loans. We shall see how it plays out.
I have about 25% NAV in equities and I have been reducing positions across the board over the last week. Other than my 100% speculations by weeks end my equity exposure will be down to less that half of what it was. I had a great quarter, up until the last couple weeks and that was enough for me.
Excellent. WE are definitely on the SAME page. I argue elsewhere that these loans were all leveraged with crypto, equity assets, etc. My first viral tweet in November was that "These all-cash sales were certainly not all-cash" :).
I think you are going to be happy you did. I lost a little upside, but I liquidated most in December and last month.
Hope you had a pleasant drive and a good visit!
Not a big ZH fan. You may already have seen this. If not, worth a read.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fooling-us-fake-stats-household-net-worth
This has been my base case since mid 2021. And just about everyday since I first posited my theory my wife has asked the same early morning question. Is today the day? Lol
Yes - totally agree with this. Love this quote: "The takeaway: In a society of borrowers and speculators, asset values increase because of borrowing and speculation, which makes rising household net worth both a negative indicator of future growth and a sign of fragility rather than strength. But until people figure this out, it remains a great tool for convincing consumers that everything is fine when it’s actually not."
Thanks. We had a wonderful time. I got out of all equities in September 2021. But my dad died a couple months later and left my brother and I a bit of money. Not enough to get rich. Lol. But I did take some of it and invest it into 3 buckets. Mining. Energy and shipping. Fixed Income. It’s been way up and way down. I’ve thought myself an incredible seer. I’ve thought myself the worlds biggest fool. About midweek last I was combined up about 5% since Jan2022. But oil crashed, gas failed to rally, shipping got hit. I had 3 equities with ex dividend dates of Friday and Monday and even though they were losing serious ground I didn’t want to sell before the date.
Anyway I cut every position by 50%, sold off some miners. I’ll probably ride it out from here, might even add to some mining positions. Time for SHTF is coming quick.
Yes - I get a feeling it's going to be one heck of a quarter....hold on tight :)
Indeed. I had a 10 month CD expire last week. It was at 3%. So the banker calls me today and says they just raised their MM rate to 4.25 which is only .25 under what I could get for 10 mos. Perfect. No commitment. At this point I’m content to sit on cash, metals and a few speculative mining stocks. I could be wrong, but I think the volatility is going to be ridiculous. I know people who like that environment but I do not.
I have traded Nat Gas off and on for a few years. We have a closely held oil/gas streaming company. 58SH and I’m a Director. 2 oil wells and 9 gas wells in northern MI. It’s not making anyone wealthy but we get some income. And it’s interesting family business. So I have always had access to some level of inside info. But in the past 6 months nothing has made sense and I lost money for the first time. So I exited those positions this morning as well.
Sometimes doing nothing is the best option.
Exactly. I think for me it was December and I just got a feeling based on some weird optimism I was witnessing based on the macro and trading backdrop. But, I would be a terrible trader as I just don't have the patience, so it's best for me to make conservative moves. I think sitting out right now generally though is a good idea....even people are worried now about getting paid on time for their 4-week treasury!
LOL. I don’t think that will be an issue. They are all just posturing. I just auto roll the 17 week Treasuries anyway.
Of course, every position I reduced is rocketing higher this morning on the fake job numbers I guess. Ignoring the massive revisions from March and April’s fake numbers.
But I’m more comfy now with 35% gold and silver, 50% cash, 15% equities. I’ll buy TLT once it falls below 100. I think you are correct, derisk, ignore and wait. Besides spring is nearly here and the Lakes are calling. Haha.