I must admit the fix and flip arc was something I largely missed as I had disconnected from cable TV, choosing instead to disappear into elaborate and character-rich HBO series that reminded me not at all about the GFC, the destruction of wealth, the theft of nights, weekends and time with family and friends.
Your stats are getting eye-popping. Yet it’s all so quiet - perhaps like that eerie calm and peaceful feeling that exists right before the massive storm strikes - you know, calm before the storm? (Maybe I have that impression because I live abroad).
wonderful article. thank you
Thank you so much and thank you for reading!
Those additional article headlines seem cheerful. 🫣
Once again, I really appreciate your work! Thank you.
Thank you for reading!
Your stats are getting eye-popping. Yet it’s all so quiet - perhaps like that eerie calm and peaceful feeling that exists right before the massive storm strikes - you know, calm before the storm? (Maybe I have that impression because I live abroad).
Yes - this week was a bit surreal.
Historical months of supply are available from YCharts: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_singlefamily_home_months_supply
(apparently months of supply were way higher in the 1980s-1990s, like around 9-10 months for years at a time... I suspect Wolf Street is right that the "natural rate" of months of supply are going down over time as technology speeds up, and so for reasons that have nothing to do with supply and demand: https://wolfstreet.com/2023/08/23/each-of-the-past-7-julys-had-the-lowest-inventory-of-existing-homes-on-record-inventory-fell-for-16-years-one-big-reason-technology/ )
Wolf Street also has some of that months supply data charted for 2010s https://wolfstreet.com/2024/01/19/amid-collapsed-demand-for-existing-homes-prices-drop-further-supply-highest-for-any-december-since-2018-new-listings-come-out-of-the-woodwork/
And Calculated Risk for 2000s https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/existing-home-sales-at-41-million-saar.html
Interesting that prices were appreciating 15% per year in 2005 at ~4 months of supply, similar to the 20% appreciation in 2020-2022 at 1-2 months of supply. When we last had ~4 months of supply in 2017-2019, prices were only appreciating ~4% per year. This suggests to me that as Wolf Street argues, the "balanced" number of months supply is going down overtime, so that 5+ months supply is probably enough to start causing stagnating prices if not declines -- not 6 months supply, which was still the rule back in 2006 when homebuying was much slower (https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2006/05/existing-home-sales-slip.html#:~:text=Many%20agents%20feel%206%20months%20of%20supply%20is%20the%20danger%20zone%20%2D%20any%20additional%20supply%20and%20prices%20will%20start%20to%20fall)