Right?! I have to get an intern who can take good pictures, or get lessons. This is how they look all over the country. Phoenix, Austin and Vegas are particularly bad. Swarm of locusts.
Your ability to get into the weeds in this market is amazing - and all these hobby landlords were birthed from cheap money - I think some warning tagline like that used by the animal rescues - ‘puppies aren’t just for Christmas’ - should be applied to starry-eyed long-term borrowers - ‘cheap loans are not just for deal-closing day’ - or ‘renters aren’t forever’
Of course there is the truism - that there really isn’t such a thing as ‘getting rich quick’ - at least not if you play within the law.
I just learned about your substack when listening to Danielle DiMartino on Wealthion and I'm very impressed with your analysis. I got out of my residential properties over the past few years (Denver area) as affordability seemed nonsensical and too many empty, new buildings/homes dotting the landscape. Do we really need 3 Lowe's within 5 miles of each other? And as someone who has traveled most of his life, I've been shocked at the rampant, unprofessional Airbnb solicitations and amateurish pricing (advertising a low daily price and jacking up fees as if people won't notice) that seems to rule popular travel destinations (versus more out off the grid properties where pricing is "normal."). Incredibly impressive work you've done and I look forward to following you going forward!
Yes. It is all a bit shocking - especially for me who sacrificed many years to cleaning up the last crisis. It took me some time even to accept we were here again, but now it's worse. This truly is the everything bubble. Thank you so much for reading and the kind words.
Brilliant to reference Shawn (just discovering) but specifically relating to the dust bowl, which many and myself didn’t understand until recently is an aprox 80 year cycle of extreme climate scenarios that leads to distressed agricultural circumstances.
Many don’t understand that the dust bow that existed thru the 1920s is what led to the instability in markets, leading up to the 1929 crash.
One can just look at the sugar commodity markets in the 20’s and how Americans and Cuban farmers had to deal with these hyper volatile climate / agricultural environments, hedging and leverage for example, that created the vulnerabilities in the economy headed into the 1929 financial crisis.
Greetings! Splendid report as always. BTW. Just getting started on The Price of Time. Had a tooth pulled yesterday so I’m sure I’ll be up all night moaning. But at least I have a new book. BTW.
2025 is the start of the 89-100 year Gleissberg Cycle which fits right in to Shawn’s prognostication. The last time the cycle came around it produced the Dust Bowl and fed the great depression. It’s been mostly clockwork for 12,000 years.
Oh nooooo on the tooth! There is nothing quite like mouth pain! Glad you have the book though. You are going to like it. Yes - so, so interesting. He talks about a whole bunch of intersecting stuff that was over my head. I love listening to him as it is so fascinating.
And look at you with the facts. Where do you keep them all?
I just listened to your interview with Adam. If you or your intern want to tour Naples and Fort Myers, let me know. I have been in the RE market in SW for 34 years. Honestly, I hope you're predictions are right because I only own 1 house. That said, I have friends at Pulte and lennar that do not back up your theses. They are on the ground here. Please reach out to me. tim.mclean@foundrycommercial.com
Those Lennar homes look hideous
Right?! I have to get an intern who can take good pictures, or get lessons. This is how they look all over the country. Phoenix, Austin and Vegas are particularly bad. Swarm of locusts.
Agreed. Horrible, just horrible
Your ability to get into the weeds in this market is amazing - and all these hobby landlords were birthed from cheap money - I think some warning tagline like that used by the animal rescues - ‘puppies aren’t just for Christmas’ - should be applied to starry-eyed long-term borrowers - ‘cheap loans are not just for deal-closing day’ - or ‘renters aren’t forever’
Of course there is the truism - that there really isn’t such a thing as ‘getting rich quick’ - at least not if you play within the law.
“Puppies aren’t just for Christmas” - Love it. Thank you so much and agreed. This game is not for the faint of heart.
Everywhere I look these days, it's another Big Con.
Unfortunately - same
I just learned about your substack when listening to Danielle DiMartino on Wealthion and I'm very impressed with your analysis. I got out of my residential properties over the past few years (Denver area) as affordability seemed nonsensical and too many empty, new buildings/homes dotting the landscape. Do we really need 3 Lowe's within 5 miles of each other? And as someone who has traveled most of his life, I've been shocked at the rampant, unprofessional Airbnb solicitations and amateurish pricing (advertising a low daily price and jacking up fees as if people won't notice) that seems to rule popular travel destinations (versus more out off the grid properties where pricing is "normal."). Incredibly impressive work you've done and I look forward to following you going forward!
Yes. It is all a bit shocking - especially for me who sacrificed many years to cleaning up the last crisis. It took me some time even to accept we were here again, but now it's worse. This truly is the everything bubble. Thank you so much for reading and the kind words.
This post is a tour de force!
Thank you so much!
How about Parkland, FLORIDA? PPL buying in 2022 and selling 2023 for 50% more.
Brilliant to reference Shawn (just discovering) but specifically relating to the dust bowl, which many and myself didn’t understand until recently is an aprox 80 year cycle of extreme climate scenarios that leads to distressed agricultural circumstances.
Many don’t understand that the dust bow that existed thru the 1920s is what led to the instability in markets, leading up to the 1929 crash.
One can just look at the sugar commodity markets in the 20’s and how Americans and Cuban farmers had to deal with these hyper volatile climate / agricultural environments, hedging and leverage for example, that created the vulnerabilities in the economy headed into the 1929 financial crisis.
Yes! He is amazing. And exactly. It’s so important to understand history. Thank you for sharing those tidbits about the commodity markets!
Will definitely check that out!
Greetings! Splendid report as always. BTW. Just getting started on The Price of Time. Had a tooth pulled yesterday so I’m sure I’ll be up all night moaning. But at least I have a new book. BTW.
2025 is the start of the 89-100 year Gleissberg Cycle which fits right in to Shawn’s prognostication. The last time the cycle came around it produced the Dust Bowl and fed the great depression. It’s been mostly clockwork for 12,000 years.
Oh nooooo on the tooth! There is nothing quite like mouth pain! Glad you have the book though. You are going to like it. Yes - so, so interesting. He talks about a whole bunch of intersecting stuff that was over my head. I love listening to him as it is so fascinating.
And look at you with the facts. Where do you keep them all?
Happy Sunday.
Hey Melody,
I just listened to your interview with Adam. If you or your intern want to tour Naples and Fort Myers, let me know. I have been in the RE market in SW for 34 years. Honestly, I hope you're predictions are right because I only own 1 house. That said, I have friends at Pulte and lennar that do not back up your theses. They are on the ground here. Please reach out to me. tim.mclean@foundrycommercial.com
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8586-Apple-Falls-Ln-Boca-Raton-FL-33496/331680599_zpid/?utm_campaign=androidappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
Bought in 3/2023 for 1.8M on sale 8/2023 for 2.5M
The link to the Dallas study appears to be broken. Would love to see what my hometown stats are
I found this, I think it's the right thing
http://insideairbnb.com/reports/inside-airbnb-dallas-march-2023
Yes! Thank you.
Here it is just in case: http://insideairbnb.com/reports/inside-airbnb-dallas-march-2023/